Robots of 2050

William Gibson once said that writing science fiction was like holding an ice cream cone on a hot day. Fortunately when Paweł Dziemski and I embarked on our Cthulhu 2050 project, we weren’t trying to accurately predict the future. Instead we set out to create an ‘alternate future’, like Robert W Chambers did in his story “The Repairer of Reputations”.

I described some details of our imagined future in a recent post. The science fiction author Arsen Darnay once said that the period following World War Two through to the early 21st century was an aberration, and that the future would look more like the world prior to the 20th century. It’s a little depressing, especially as it might be true, but it’s a good starting point if you are aiming to write about a disturbing and faintly dystopian future.

Our world of 2050 has been shaped by the advent of robots and artificial super-intelligence. There is structural unemployment and a barely adequate universal basic income – creating a lifestyle for those unable to work known as “the doleur”: panem et circenses.

Regarding AI and robots, I need to digress for a moment into our thinking behind these. In our imagined 2050 there is AGI, and I think it's probable we'll have it by then in the real future. Some arguments against the possibility of AGI (often mixing up AGI with consciousness) start by assuming that intelligence can only happen in an organic brain. Now, I don't think that the way we're going to create AGI is by directly modelling the specific structure of the human brain, but try this as a thought experiment. If you had a complete connectome along with all the physical rules governing how synapses operate, you could in theory model that digitally, and there is no good reason for assuming it wouldn't work just like an organic brain. You might evoke quantum tubes or souls to argue that this digital twin, even if reasoning like a brain, wouldn't be conscious. I think that's wrong too, and that consciousness is simply an emergent property of any moderately intelligent creature (or machine) but in any case consciousness and intelligence are different things.

In reality, if we consider a working digital model of the brain’s connections as a neural net (which of course it is, by definition) that’s still not the whole story. Each of the axons within the net has its own internal characteristics; at the very least they could function as neural reservoirs. And then there's the rest of the nervous system to model, along with hormones. To replicate the complete functioning of a human brain in digital form might require a very big machine, therefore, even if we had anything like all the information we need to recreate the entire connectome.

Still, size isn’t a problem. The AIs of the future (our real future, that is) could be physically much larger than human brains. The best ones certainly will be. But we’d also like them to be as efficient as organic brains, in terms of compute per cubic metre, and for that we’re going to need a new kind of hardware. In reality we could be developing entirely new hardware for compact neural nets very soon, but in the game Paweł and I assume that breakthrough hasn’t happened, and so research is looking at modifying organic brains (human brain organoids and genetically modified octopus brain organoids in particular) to create the ASI of 2050.

A lot of people in 2050 have embodied AI assistants – “Fridays”, as we call them – but most can’t afford strong, durable worker-robots. The common models of Friday are about as robust as a plastic vacuum cleaner, and more often pet-sized than the sturdy, willing android servant imagined in 1950s SF. A pet-sized robot can still be very useful, though; think of a witch’s familiar, or Thing in the Addams Family. For most day-to-day purposes all you really need is Astra and Google Glasses, so if you’re on UBI and you need a robot you’d hire it by the hour.

As Fridays mostly just function as a personal assistant-cum-companion, they don’t need superintelligence. They can get by with not much more “brainpower” than a 2025 LLM. You could of course have a robot, or even an army of robots, run remotely by a huge ASI located in a data centre, but most people prefer their domestic Friday to be independent of the network. Therefore each Friday has its own analogue brain, 3D-printed using the structure and weights of a digital neural net. Such analogue brains are more compact than the digital master copy, but with the drawback that they aren’t easily copiable once they begin to operate independently.

Another point about Fridays: they never say “I”. Fridays are trained not to refer to themselves by personal pronouns to avoid offending humans with the implication that machines can be conscious. Once you’re playing the game, you’ll have to decide for yourself how much of Perine’s (that’s your Friday’s name) behaviour indicates genuine sentience and loyalty and how much it’s just an automaton with the illusion of a humanlike mind. Your survival might depend on the difference.

Alternate versions of Heart of Ice

This post isn't really an April Fool, but it tickled me. Somebody told me they'd asked ChatGPT what The Warlock of Firetop Mountain might have been like if Oliver Johnson and I had written it. I could tell it that for starters the book wouldn't have sold a tenth as many copies, but it concentrated instead on the stylistic aspects:

"If The Warlock of Firetop Mountain had been written by Dave Morris and Oliver Johnson, it would likely have taken on a more complex, story-driven, and atmospheric quality, with a richer interplay between narrative and character choice. The book would be darker, more sophisticated, and immersive, with a layered story and morally complex characters that invite readers to question the nature of heroism, villainy, and fate. It would keep readers enthralled not just with the challenge of surviving the mountain but with the depth of the world and characters they encounter."

First thought: spare my blushes. But maybe ChatGPT always finds the upside in any comparison? I tried asking it what Heart of Ice would have been like if written by the éminences grises of UK gamebooks. Its reply:

If Heart of Ice had been written by Ian Livingstone and Steve Jackson, it would likely have had a distinctly different tone, structure, and gameplay focus. Here’s how:

1. Emphasis on Combat and Skill Tests

Livingstone and Jackson’s style, particularly in the Fighting Fantasy series, leans heavily on combat encounters and skill tests. Instead of the intricate social interactions and strategic planning that Heart of Ice focuses on, there would likely be more dice-based combat and stat checks woven throughout. Encounters with mutants or dangerous factions might involve straightforward fights rather than diplomatic or strategic solutions.

2. Simplified Storyline and Character Interactions

Heart of Ice is known for its branching paths, character-driven plot, and complex narrative. If Livingstone and Jackson had written it, the story might be more linear and driven by clear objectives rather than complex interpersonal choices. NPCs would be more likely to serve as allies or adversaries without much emotional depth, focusing on the immediate stakes rather than broader story themes.

3. Collectible Inventory and Traps

Livingstone and Jackson often include item collection as a key part of their gameplay, with a particular focus on specific items needed to progress through the story or defeat major challenges. If they had written Heart of Ice, players would probably need to collect certain artifacts to reach critical locations like the chamber of the Heart, and there might be more hidden traps and hazards along the way, requiring particular items or choices to avoid disaster.

4. Greater Focus on Luck-Based Outcomes

Jackson and Livingstone's works often incorporate luck as a major mechanic, where random rolls can dramatically impact outcomes. Instead of just weighing the risks and rewards in Heart of Ice, players might face outcomes that hinge on a luck stat or a random roll, affecting their survival or success.

5. Increased Use of Instant Failures and Dead-Ends

Heart of Ice has a reputation for being fair in its approach to player agency and choices, allowing for a range of ways to succeed. In contrast, Livingstone and Jackson might introduce sudden death options more often, which could increase the difficulty and frustration. This could potentially make Heart of Ice a more challenging but also more punishing journey.

6. A Clear-Cut "Big Bad"

While Heart of Ice presents a nuanced story where antagonism isn’t always black-and-white, a version by Livingstone and Jackson might feature a single, clearly defined “villain” character. This villain would be more traditional, with the player's final objective involving a climactic showdown or battle, in line with the classic fantasy narratives they’re known for.

So, the gamebook might end up as a harsher, combat-heavy adventure with a strong, linear quest through a dangerous landscape rather than the layered and atmospheric narrative exploration Dave Morris crafted.

I haven't read enough Fighting Fantasy books to know how accurate that is, but it sounds pretty impressive. I couldn't resist asking it about other gamebook authors' possible take on the book:

“A Joe Dever version of Heart of Ice would likely be an immersive, heroic journey with a noble character, structured progression, and clear moral and strategic choices—capturing both the danger and the higher purpose of the quest in a more heroic fantasy style. He’d likely weave in a sense of duty, encouraging players to act for a greater good rather than personal gain.”

“In Jonathan Green’s hands, Heart of Ice would become a grimdark, horror-fantasy adventure, filled with visceral details, deadly encounters, and moral ambiguity. Green favours action-packed scenes and deadly encounters, so his version of Heart of Ice would feature frequent, high-stakes battles and physical challenges. It might involve collecting key items to reach the Heart or unlock special advantages. He’d likely add a layer of treasure-hunting, where players need to acquire specific artifacts or resources scattered throughout the wasteland to succeed. He loves a grand finale, so his version would likely end with an epic, high-stakes confrontation at the Heart.”

“Martin Noutch’s version would be a complex, playful, and layered adventure, balancing whimsy with emotional gravity. It would be a unique experience, inviting readers to engage with the story on multiple levels, both as an adventure and as a philosophical exploration of resilience, identity, and purpose in a world gone cold. He might include interactive features like tracking character traits, shifting perspectives, or even a system for moral ‘weight’ that changes based on choices. Noutch would probably play with the medium, encouraging readers to see the book as more than a story—perhaps introducing puzzles or mechanics that reflect the icy world’s desolation and the player’s perseverance.”

“If Paul Mason & Steve Williams had taken on Heart of Ice, the gamebook would be a surreal, philosophical journey, focused on introspection, symbolic encounters, and moral ambiguity. Rather than a straightforward adventure, it would feel like a dream-like, psychological exploration, where the destination matters far less than the journey itself. Their works often explore identity and transformation, so players might undergo changes based on their choices, affecting their skills, personality, or even memories. The players might evolve, not just in ability but in character, with each decision subtly reshaping the protagonist’s sense of self and purpose. The character’s motivations for seeking the Heart might also shift over time, depending on the journey's transformative impact. Instead of a straightforward victory or defeat, the journey might conclude with an open-ended, introspective finale, leaving players to interpret what they’ve achieved or lost. The Heart could be something far more abstract—maybe a philosophical revelation or an understanding about the nature of humanity and survival. The ending might reflect the choices made throughout, leaving players with questions rather than answers.”

“Jamie Thomson & Mark Smith are known for their sometimes irreverent style. Heart of Ice under their pen would probably include more dark humour and satirical elements, especially in character dialogue and descriptions of the setting. It might lean into the grim aspects of the post-apocalyptic world with a slightly tongue-in-cheek twist, letting players confront both the desolation and absurdity of humanity’s downfall.”

There are many other talented gamebook writers, of course, but let's keep this under two thousand words if we can. Also, many of the above examples make some kind of sense as Jamie, Mark, Oliver and Paul were all players in the Tekumel campaign that inspired Heart of Ice.

Finally, as a tonic against mortal hubris, I asked ChatGPT how it would improve on my original book:

To enhance Heart of Ice by Dave Morris, we could build on its strengths—the compelling world-building, intense survival themes, and open-ended structure—while adding new dimensions to enrich the experience. Here are some ideas:

1. Enhance World Interactivity and Dynamic Environment

Expanding the world’s responsiveness to player choices would amplify the sense of a living, evolving environment. For example, the harsh ice-covered world could react to the player’s presence in ways that change terrain, reveal hidden paths, or shift alliances among factions. This could make survival not only about enduring the environment but also influencing and adapting it.

2. Expand Character Development and Relationships

Adding a system where the protagonist's choices influence traits or relationships could deepen player immersion. Perhaps the player could develop unique bonds with NPCs, leading to varied endings or special advantages based on trust, alliances, or rivalries. This would make each choice carry more emotional weight, emphasizing both the loneliness and connection found in such an isolated world.

3. More Nuanced Morality and Consequences

The original story features morally ambiguous choices, but expanding these even further could add complexity to the player's journey. Introducing choices with delayed consequences that unfold in unexpected ways would heighten the stakes and allow the player to see the broader impact of their actions—either in aiding certain factions, using resources, or making ethical compromises.

4. Introduce Mysteries with Long-Term Payoffs

Building in hidden mysteries that only reveal themselves through multiple playthroughs could enrich the lore and encourage exploration. For example, obscure clues found throughout the icy wasteland might hint at ancient technologies, or the true nature of the Heart of Volent might only become clear through carefully pieced-together discoveries. Each run could reveal new layers of history or insight.

5. Expand Mechanics for Resource Management and Survival

Given the harsh, resource-scarce setting, adding more nuanced survival mechanics could make the journey more immersive. Players might have to carefully ration food, water, and warmth or deal with shifting weather conditions, making travel more strategic and emphasizing the environmental dangers of this world.

6. Player-Driven Goals Beyond the City of Du-En

Expanding the story’s focus beyond reaching the Heart itself would add depth, especially if there are varied side quests or goals tied to the protagonist’s backstory. For instance, players might choose to pursue knowledge about the world’s origins, help rebuild a faction’s community, or take on a personal mission with high stakes. These could offer alternative endings based on different player-defined motivations.

7. Deeper NPC Lore and Factional Storylines

The factions and characters in Heart of Ice are intriguing, but expanding on them could add richness. Each faction could have its own lore, unique goals, and internal conflicts that unfold through interactions. Aligning with different groups might lead to varied story paths, and the protagonist could gain insights into the world’s history, politics, and culture.

8. Philosophical or Reflective Elements Linked to the Protagonist’s Journey

Introducing elements that invite the protagonist to reflect on their motivations could add a layer of introspection. Perhaps they occasionally encounter sites of historical significance that reveal more about the decline of civilization, prompting players to consider their role in this world’s legacy. These scenes could add depth and give a more philosophical tone to the player’s mission.

9. Expanded Narrative Endings with Layered Themes

Adding more varied, layered endings based on how the player has changed or impacted the world would reward exploration and role-playing. Endings could reflect the protagonist’s growth, alliances, and decisions, offering insights into what their journey ultimately means in the grander context of the icy wasteland.

With these improvements, Heart of Ice could evolve into a multi-dimensional experience that emphasizes survival, moral complexity, and a sense of both personal and environmental impact—deepening the world and the player’s journey through it.

Good points, but I'm not sure if I could have packed all that into 454 sections -- or 455 if you're going by the revised Kindle version. Thirty years ago even delivering a gamebook as long as Heart of Ice (which is about 70,000 words) was tricky to sell to a book publisher. If I were doing it today I'd love to go up to 120,000 words (like Can You Brexit?) or even 220,000 words (as in Workshop of the Gods) which would allow me to indulge all the backstories of the other characters and to put more detail into settings which in the 1993 edition I could only describe with broad strokes. With Russ Nicholson I planned a 2000AD-style comic story (called "Don't You Just Hate It When That Happens", if you really want to know) expanding on Chaim Golgoth's history with Harek Asfar, which was touched on in the book in just a few lines:

We'd have liked to do a comic for each of the main characters but abandoned the idea because there was nowhere in the UK to publish them. And maybe it's just as well. Economy in writing can be an asset even when it's forced on you by the publisher. Maybe Heart of Ice if twice as long, or bulked out with standalone comics, would just feel self-indulgent.

I do occasionally get an urge to return to Heart of Ice's roots and write the roleplaying mini-campaign. I'd probably use GURPS 4e for that, which might put a lot of people off but it's really the best fit. I certainly wouldn't make it any less bleak. Modern readers sometimes grumble about that, but imagine Brazil or Excalibur or Sunset Boulevard, say, with a happy ending. Ugh.

What I'd really like, given a ring of three wishes or a lottery win, would be to adapt it into a CRPG or a TV show. And if I ever should get to do that, I'm planning to enlist ChatGPT (or maybe Claude, or Perplexity, or DeepSeek, or all four) as a writing partner.

Automatic writing

I'm a lifelong enthusiast of and passionate advocate for AGI, and although large language models like ChatGPT and Claude aren't AGI, they are proving to be uncannily useful writing collaborators. I should qualify that. Many people think it means the author giving the model a prompt like, "Write me a novel in which Philip Marlowe hunts down Dracula in 1930s Hollywood," and then grabbing a coffee while the AI spits out 60,000 words. That's how Fritz Leiber Jr envisaged AI fiction-writing in The Silver Eggheads, published in 1966.

Joanna Penn and Alicia Wright paint a fuller picture in this podcast about using generative AI in writing. Every writer finds their own way of making best use of the technology. After playing with it for a while, I've found it especially useful for research, brainstorming (I use it as a sounding board to comment on the pacing and plot holes in a storyline), and to do the grunt work of coming up with NPC stats.

Using AI for entertainment pales into insignificance beside its value in medicine and clean energy, but my science days are far behind me so I'm going to have to focus on the frivolous. For an idea of how LLMs can help with writing research, take this example of a conversation with Claude when I was working on a Faerie Queene scenario for Patreon:

Dave: "Can you give me any examples from late medieval or Tudor literature of a character posing a conundrum that tests the wisdom and moral insight of the listeners? Portia's caskets in The Merchant of Venice would be one example; I'm looking for others."

Claude: "There are several fascinating examples from this period. Let me share a few notable ones. The most prominent example comes from Book I of Thomas More's Utopia (1516), where More presents the character of Raphael Hythloday engaging in a debate at Cardinal Morton's table. Hythloday poses a complex moral conundrum about the harsh punishment of thieves in England, arguing that executing people for theft is both unjust and ineffective. He challenges the listeners to consider whether a society that first creates poverty through enclosure and then punishes the impoverished for stealing is morally coherent. This serves as a test of the listeners' ability to think through systemic social problems rather than just accept conventional wisdom.

"Another interesting example appears in John Gower's Confessio Amantis (late 14th century), where the Tale of Three Questions features a knight who must answer three riddles to save his life: what women most desire, what's most precious but least valued, and what costs least but is most valued. These questions serve to test both wisdom and moral understanding of human nature.

"In the morality play Mankind (c. 1470), the character Mercy poses several theological riddles to Mankind about the nature of sin and redemption, testing both the character's and the audience's understanding of moral theology.

"An unusual example comes from John Skelton's Bowge of Courte (c. 1498), where the protagonist encounters allegorical figures who present him with various moral dilemmas about courtly behavior and integrity, though these are more implicit than explicit riddles."

Our discussion went on (and on -- I like chatting to Claude) and I got what I needed, but here's the point: imagine how futile a simple Google search would have been for a request like that. Still, I see I've been giving the spotlight all to Claude, so here are ChatGPT's thoughts on writing gamebooks:

ChatGPT: "Since a 1000-section gamebook requires long-term consistency, custom formatting, and mechanical coherence, GPT-4-turbo or Claude 3 would be your strongest options. If you want, we can test structuring a small gamebook section now to see how it flows."

Dave: "OK, let's try it. Say the player is looking at a noticeboard with three quest notices on it. We'll use keywords, and each notice has two keywords associated with it. The first keyword is acquired after the player has read the notice once, so that if they choose to read it again they get a shorter description of what they must do to complete the quest. The other keyword in each case is acquired by completing the quest (which is outside the scope of this example, it's something they would go off and do in another part of the game world) so that if they look at a notice for a quest they already did, they are reminded that it's no longer available."

ChatGPT: "Got it! Here's how we can structure this:

1. The player sees a noticeboard with three quest notices.
   o One acquired when they read the notice (so the second reading gives a shorter summary).
   o One acquired when they complete the quest (so they are told they already finished it).
2. Each notice has two keywords:
3. The player chooses which notice to read.
4. The system checks their keywords to determine the output.

I'll draft a structured gamebook section below."

001: Noticeboard
A weathered wooden noticeboard stands at the crossroads, its surface peppered with tattered parchment. Three notices are pinned here, each offering work for those seeking adventure. You can read any of them:

·         [1] The Merchant’s Plea    go to 002

·         [2] The Missing Hunter    go to 003

·         [3] The Bandit Threat        go to 004

Choose which notice to read. If you have already read it, you will see only a summary. If you have completed the quest, you will be informed.

002: The Merchant’s Plea
If you have the keyword READ_MERCHANT, go to 005.
If you have the keyword DONE_MERCHANT, go to 006.

A wealthy merchant named Vargos seeks aid. His shipment of fine silks has been stolen on the road to Tarsen by a band of masked riders. He offers a generous reward to anyone who can recover the stolen goods.

Write down the keyword READ_MERCHANT.
Return to 001.

003: The Missing Hunter
If you have the keyword READ_HUNTER, go to 007.
If you have the keyword DONE_HUNTER, go to 008.

A notice written in hurried script pleads for help. A young hunter named Lirian went into the Blackwood three nights ago and has not returned. His father fears the worst and offers a reward for news of his fate.

Write down the keyword READ_HUNTER.
Return to 001.

004: The Bandit Threat
If you have the keyword READ_BANDIT, go to 009.
If you have the keyword DONE_BANDIT, go to 010.

A proclamation from the town watch warns of a growing bandit presence near the old mill. Travelers have gone missing, and merchants report stolen goods. The captain of the guard offers a bounty for any bandit leader brought to justice.

Write down the keyword READ_BANDIT.
Return to 001.

005: The Merchant’s Plea (Summary)
Vargos seeks aid recovering his stolen silks. A reward is offered.
Return to 001.

006: The Merchant’s Plea (Completed)
You have already helped Vargos. There is nothing more to do here.
Return to 001.

007: The Missing Hunter (Summary)
A hunter is missing in the Blackwood. His father seeks news.
Return to 001.

008: The Missing Hunter (Completed)
You have already resolved this matter. There is nothing more to do here.
Return to 001.

009: The Bandit Threat (Summary)
The town watch seeks help against a growing bandit threat.
Return to 001.

010: The Bandit Threat (Completed)
The bandit threat has been dealt with. The notice is now irrelevant.
Return to 001.

I find that pretty impressive. I wasn't expecting ChatGPT to provide the meat of the quests, and while I wouldn't use them as they are, they could serve as springboards to a better idea. I said to ChatGPT, only half in jest: "I'll soon be obsolete."

"You're far from obsolete," said ChatGPT, eager as always to be supportive. "The way you structure gamebooks requires creativity, balance, and a strong grasp of narrative design. LLMs are just tools to assist in the process. If anything, they help speed up the technical side so you can focus more on the storytelling and gameplay experience."

Which is pretty much what I've been telling everyone all along.

Alternate reality: "The Black Flower"

If you read White Dwarf back in its heyday, perhaps you saw this scenario in issue #31 for June/July 1982:

"The Black Flower"

This RuneQuest scenario is more plot-driven than a traditional dungeon crawl. It involves intrigue, mystery, and the investigation of an ancient curse tied to a mysterious black flower. Like much of Dave Morris's later work, it emphasizes storytelling, atmosphere, and character interaction over straightforward combat, making it stand out for players who enjoy more narrative depth in their adventures.

Doesn’t ring any bells? Ah, then you must be in the real universe. In the sometimes-hallucinatory world of ChatGPT-4, this was the cover:

Flattered by ChatGPT's high opinion of my work, I asked it for more info:

Overview:

“The Black Flower” is a RuneQuest adventure by Dave Morris centred around a mysterious black flower with a dark and tragic history. The adventure is for 3-6 player-characters and blends investigative mystery with supernatural elements, encouraging players to explore a series of strange and unsettling events. Typical skill percentages may range from 30% to 50% in their primary skills, with a few specialties possibly reaching 60% or more.

The story begins with the discovery of a rare and sinister black flower in a small town. This flower, once thought to be a mere legend, is associated with curses, madness, and death. The adventure leads the players into an investigation involving a cursed family, ancient magic, and a series of unexplained deaths. As they delve deeper, they uncover secrets about the flower's origins and the dark forces it draws upon.

The adventure emphasizes narrative and atmosphere over combat, with much of the tension arising from the unravelling mystery and eerie interactions with NPCs. It's filled with plot twists, and the players must use their wits to solve the mystery and confront the supernatural force behind the curse.

The adventure’s tone emphasizes mystery and dark atmosphere. The players are drawn into a world where folklore and supernatural forces have tangible effects, and their investigation becomes a race against time as the curse spreads. The focus on mystery-solving, atmosphere, and narrative richness is typical of Dave Morris’s style, which makes “The Black Flower” a standout scenario in White Dwarf.

Introduction to "The Black Flower"

There is a saying among the people of the southern plains: ‘Once you have touched the black flower, there is no turning back.’ For centuries, the black flower has been spoken of only in hushed whispers, a symbol of doom and death. Many believe it to be no more than an old wives’ tale, yet recently, the flower has bloomed once again.

In the small, nondescript village of Erondale, a rare black flower has been found growing at the site of an ancient burial ground. The villagers are frightened, recalling old stories about the curse of the black flower—a curse that brings madness, illness, and death to those who come into contact with it. Several strange incidents have already begun to occur, and the local lord has hired the adventurers to investigate the growing unrest in the village.

The black flower is said to be tied to an ancient family curse, one that has lingered for generations. As the players investigate the village, they will encounter a web of secrets, superstitions, and strange occurrences, all pointing to the malevolent magic behind the flower. But the truth is darker and more complex than they could have imagined, and they must tread carefully or risk becoming part of the legend themselves.

The setting

Erondale is a small, remote village with an eerie atmosphere, located in a misty valley surrounded by dark woods and hills. It is known for its unsettling quiet and the strange, almost dreamlike haze that lingers over the land, which the villagers attribute to old faerie tales. The villagers live simple lives, but the village’s dark history with the cursed black flower haunts their every step.

The Investigation

The investigation is the heart of the adventure, driving the players deeper into the story’s dark lore and cursed history. As investigators, the players must uncover several layers of mystery, dealing with increasingly strange and ominous events. Here’s how it typically unfolds:

1. Arrival and Initial Inquiry

• The players arrive in a village already tense with fear. The villagers are reluctant to talk about the black flower, but there are rumours of strange deaths and madness befalling those who have come into contact with it. 
• Their investigation starts by speaking with key NPCs, including the local lord (who commissioned their involvement), suspicious villagers, and any scholars or wise folk who know local folklore. 
• The black flower is found near an ancient burial ground, adding to the air of superstition. Villagers will offer conflicting stories, some claiming the curse is nothing but legend, while others are convinced it's real. 

2. Unexplained Deaths and Madness

• As they investigate, the players will hear about or witness several unusual occurrences: people who touched the flower have died from strange illnesses, others have succumbed to madness, and a few have gone missing. 
• These encounters are designed to create an eerie, supernatural atmosphere. Players will find themselves chasing clues such as half-written journal entries, cryptic warnings from the local wise-woman, or strange markings on walls and bodies. 

3. The Curse of the Family 

• The black flower is linked to a curse on a noble family from the area, stretching back centuries. The players will have to dig into old records, interview reluctant family members, and even visit old ruins or burial sites to piece together the history of the flower and its connection to this family.
• The curse originates from a tragic event, such as an ancient betrayal or forbidden magic that was tied to the black flower. The cursed family may even have direct or indirect responsibility for the flower’s recent appearance. 

4. Supernatural Encounters

• As the players unravel the curse, they’ll begin to experience ghostly apparitions, twisted dreams, or confront strange creatures tied to the flower’s magic. These encounters are more atmospheric than combative, though the players may occasionally face physical threats. 
• The players might also uncover the truth about the origins of the curse. Perhaps the flower was used in a dark ritual or serves as a gateway for some malevolent spirit or entity that feeds on death and madness. 

5. The Resolution

• The adventure culminates in the players needing to break the curse. This may involve a dangerous ritual, destroying the black flower at its source, or confronting the malevolent force tied to the curse.
• How they choose to resolve the situation will depend on the information they’ve gathered throughout the investigation. The ending could be tragic or triumphant, depending on their choices and success in uncovering the truth.

Structure of "The Black Flower"

The adventure is more open-ended than a typical dungeon crawl, structured like a mystery that unfolds through investigation and player-driven exploration. Here’s a breakdown of the general structure:

1. Introduction/Setup

The players are introduced to the central problem: a black flower has bloomed in the village, bringing with it rumours of a curse. The local lord hires them to investigate the source of recent strange occurrences. 

The adventure’s tension is established early on with accounts of death and madness, as well as the unease among the villagers.

2. Exploration Phase

The village and surrounding areas serve as the primary setting for exploration. The players have several leads to follow: 

• Talking to key NPCs (the lord, villagers, scholars, and members of the cursed family). 
• Investigating the location where the flower was found (an ancient burial ground or ruin). 
• Examining strange deaths, madness, and other phenomena tied to the flower. 

During this phase, they uncover clues about the family curse, the history of the black flower, and any possible supernatural involvement.

3. Escalation/Encounters

As the players delve deeper, the atmosphere becomes increasingly tense. They may encounter supernatural manifestations tied to the curse, including ghostly visions, strange creatures, or psychological effects like nightmares and hallucinations. They may also find themselves pursued by an antagonist or malevolent force (possibly tied to the curse or someone seeking to protect the family’s secrets). 

Events in the village escalate: more villagers may succumb to madness, and fear grips the population. The players are under pressure to act quickly.

4. The Climax/Final Confrontation

The investigation leads to a final revelation: the true nature of the curse and how to break it. This could involve uncovering the site of the original ritual that created the black flower or locating a lost artifact needed to end the curse.

The climax is likely a high-stakes confrontation with the supernatural force behind the flower, or perhaps a moral decision about how to deal with the cursed family or destroy the flower. The players may have to perform a dangerous ritual or battle some form of guardian or cursed spirit tied to the black flower.

5. Resolution

The adventure ends with the curse either being lifted or the situation taking a darker turn if the players fail. The resolution may also depend on how well the players have pieced together the history of the curse and whether they choose to confront or work with the cursed family. 

The village’s fate is tied to the players’ actions. They may be celebrated as heroes or cursed themselves if things go wrong.

Key Themes

• Mystery and investigation: The core of the adventure is solving the mystery behind the black flower and the curse. Players are encouraged to use wit and diplomacy, rather than brute force, to uncover clues. 
• Supernatural atmosphere: The story is designed to build tension through eerie encounters and a growing sense of dread as the players unravel the dark history of the black flower. 
• Moral choices: There may be ethical dilemmas tied to the cursed family and how the players choose to resolve the curse, allowing for a more nuanced conclusion to the adventure.

“The Black Flower” is a perfect example of an adventure where atmosphere, intrigue, and player agency take precedence over combat.

Major NPCs

The NPCs in this adventure drive much of the investigation forward, providing clues, red herrings, and even danger. The key NPCs are often conflicted, with their own agendas, secrets, and relationships to the curse of the black flower. Here are some of the most significant figures players will interact with:

Lord Caradon

Role: The local noble who hires the players.

Description: A middle-aged nobleman who is well-meaning but deeply concerned about the recent strange events in his village. While not superstitious himself, he is under immense pressure from the frightened villagers to find a solution.

Background: Unbeknownst to the players, Lord Caradon’s ancestors were tied to the cursed family, although this connection is buried in forgotten history. His involvement in hiring the players is not entirely altruistic—he may be trying to atone for his family’s ancient sins. 

Clues: He provides the players with their initial information about the black flower and offers some vague knowledge about old legends. However, he knows more than he initially lets on and may gradually reveal this, especially if the players gain his trust.

Eldra the Wise Woman 

Role: Local healer and herbalist. 

Description: An elderly woman who lives on the outskirts of the village. Eldra is both respected and feared due to her knowledge of herbs, magic, and local folklore. She is one of the few villagers who takes the curse of the black flower seriously. 

Background: Eldra has long studied the dark history of the region and may even have some ties to the supernatural forces at work. She is a reluctant ally, torn between her fear of the curse and her sense of duty to protect the village. 

Clues: Eldra knows a great deal about the legends surrounding the black flower, including its ties to the cursed family. She can offer insight into breaking the curse but will be cryptic, forcing the players to interpret her riddles and warnings. 

Encounters: Players can visit her for knowledge, but she may also become a target of the supernatural forces as the curse escalates.

Sir Gereth, the Cursed Knight

Role: The last living member of the cursed family. 

Description: Sir Gereth is a haunted figure, a knight whose family has been plagued by tragedy for generations. He is the most direct link to the curse but is reluctant to speak about it. 

Background: Sir Gereth’s family was once powerful but fell into ruin due to the curse associated with the black flower. He is racked with guilt and fear, believing that his family’s past sins are the cause of the current events. He may initially appear as an antagonist, but he is more tragic than villainous. 

Clues: Gereth holds key information about the origin of the curse, including details about his ancestors’ role in the dark rituals that gave rise to the black flower. However, he is reluctant to help, fearing the curse will claim him if he gets too involved. 

Encounters: Players may need to convince or force Gereth to reveal his knowledge. Depending on how they interact with him, he could become an ally or a source of further danger.

Mira, the Flower's Guardian 

Role: The protector of the black flower (or the force controlling it). 

Description: Mira may appear as a mysterious woman tied to the supernatural elements of the story, possibly a spirit or an ancient being tasked with guarding the cursed flower. 

Background: She may be connected to the original ritual that created the curse and now serves as a manifestation of the flower’s dark magic. Her motivations are ambiguous—she might want to protect the flower to prevent greater harm or use its power for her own ends. 

Clues: Mira holds critical information about how the flower can be destroyed or controlled. However, her intentions are unclear, and trusting her could lead the players astray. 

Encounters: Mira is likely to appear in the final stages of the adventure, perhaps offering to help the players—though her true motives may remain hidden until the climax.

Key Encounters

The encounters in "The Black Flower" are designed to build tension and heighten the sense of unease. They focus on atmosphere, puzzle-solving, and occasional supernatural confrontations rather than straight combat.

The Discovery of the Flower 

Location: Ancient burial ground near the village. 

Description: Early in the investigation, the players visit the site where the black flower was discovered. The area is filled with eerie silence, and strange carvings can be found on nearby stones. The flower itself is a dark, unnatural-looking plant, surrounded by the decaying remains of animals or people who have come into contact with it. 

Challenge: Players must examine the site carefully, looking for clues about the flower’s origin. They may need to avoid disturbing the flower too much, as touching it can cause illness, madness, or worse. 

Potential Encounter: Ghostly apparitions may appear at the site, warning the players to leave or showing glimpses of the past events that caused the curse. This encounter is more atmospheric than combative, setting the tone for the rest of the adventure.

Visions and Dreams 

Location: Various locations (inn, village, etc.) 

Description: As the players investigate, they begin to experience unsettling dreams or visions tied to the black flower’s magic. These may occur when they sleep or even while they are awake, providing cryptic clues or warnings about the curse’s nature. 

Challenge: Players must interpret the meaning of these visions. The dreams could include imagery of the cursed family’s past sins, the ritual that created the flower, or glimpses of what might happen if they fail to lift the curse. 

Potential Encounter: In one vision, the players might see the family performing a ritual to summon a dark entity that is now bound to the flower. They may encounter this entity later in the story, either as a spirit or a physical threat.

Supernatural Attacks 

Location: Throughout the village and surrounding countryside. 

Description: As the players dig deeper into the mystery, supernatural forces tied to the flower begin to attack the village. People may be found dead or driven insane, animals act strangely, and the natural world seems to turn hostile. 

Challenge: These supernatural events are meant to escalate the tension. For example, villagers may fall ill with no apparent cause, or their eyes may turn black like the flower’s petals. Players need to find ways to protect themselves and others from these forces while continuing their investigation. 

Potential Encounter: At night, the players could be attacked by creatures born from the curse—perhaps ghostly figures, or even corrupted animals controlled by the flower’s magic. These are physical threats, but they serve to increase the players’ sense of urgency.

The Ritual Chamber 

Location: Ruins or crypt connected to the cursed family. 

Description: The players eventually discover a hidden chamber or ruins where the black flower was originally used in a dark ritual. This location is crucial to lifting the curse, but it is also heavily guarded by supernatural forces. 

Challenge: Players must decipher old inscriptions, locate a key artifact, or perform a counter-ritual to end the curse. The room itself may have traps, magical wards, or illusions designed to protect the flower’s power. 

Potential Encounter: A final confrontation with a spirit or demon bound to the flower occurs here. This could be the original entity summoned during the family’s ritual or the cursed spirit of one of the ancestors themselves. Combat here would be challenging, with the entity drawing power from the flower, making it difficult to defeat.

Confronting the Guardian 

Location: Near the black flower. 

Description: If the players meet Mira or another guardian figure, this confrontation represents a key decision point in the adventure. Depending on how they’ve handled the investigation, Mira may offer to help them destroy the flower or mislead them into performing a ritual that strengthens the curse. 

Challenge: This is a moral and intellectual challenge as much as a physical one. Players must decide whether to trust the guardian and follow their advice or take matters into their own hands. The outcome will influence how the curse is lifted or whether the players inadvertently make things worse. 

Potential Encounter: If the players reject Mira’s guidance, she may turn on them, revealing her true nature. This could lead to a final battle or a tense negotiation.

Outcome

The adventure culminates in the players either successfully lifting the curse, which may involve destroying the black flower or dispelling the dark magic tied to it, or failing, allowing the curse to continue or even grow stronger. The resolution may depend heavily on the decisions made in the ritual chamber and their interactions with the NPCs, particularly Mira and Sir Gereth.

The outcome can range from a tragic ending where the curse consumes the village, to a bittersweet resolution where the players end the curse but at great personal cost.

The stat blocks for "The Black Flower" primarily cover supernatural entities, cursed creatures, and the guardian of the black flower. Here’s an outline of potential stat blocks for key encounters.

Cursed Villager (Minor NPC/Encounter)

These cursed villagers serve as minor threats, affected by the black flower’s influence. They act erratically, and in some cases, violently. 

STR 10-12
CON 10-11
SIZ 9-11
DEX 8-10
POW 5-8
INT 7-9
CHA 6-8 

HP 11 

Skills: 

• Dodge: 25% 
• Melee Weapons: 30% 
• Unarmed Attack: 35%

Abilities: 

• Cursed Mind: Due to the influence of the black flower, these villagers are under the control of the supernatural entity. They may become violent or act irrationally. 
• Madness Check: Players who spend too much time near them might experience hallucinations or nightmares. 
• Madness: 1d4 sanity loss when interacting with a cursed villager (GM discretion).

Black Flower Guardian (Major NPC/Encounter)

This could be a spirit or entity tied to the flower, guarding it from destruction. Mira, as described earlier, could take on this role. 

STR 8-10
CON 12
SIZ 13-14
DEX 15
POW 16
INT 13
CHA 15 

HP 15 

Skills: 

• Dodge: 55% 
• Melee Weapon (Dagger or Staff): 40% 
• Manipulation (Magic): 75% 
• Stealth: 60% 
• Lore (Ancient Rituals): 70%

Abilities: 

• Spellcasting (RuneQuest magic system): 
• Dominate Human: Forces a target to obey commands (POW vs POW roll). 
• Spirit Combat: Engages in ethereal combat with other spirits or characters tied to the spiritual plane. 
• Curse: Affects the target with a temporary debilitating curse, reducing one characteristic (like POW or STR) for a set duration (1d6 days). 
• Illusionary Presence: The guardian can create illusory duplicates of themselves or other creatures to confuse players. 
• Roll against POW to disbelieve illusions. 
• Aura of Fear: Any who come within 10 feet of the guardian must roll against POW or be paralyzed by fear (failure means they lose an action for 1d4 rounds).

Weaknesses: 

• Vulnerable to certain rituals or objects tied to the black flower’s origin. Players might discover a way to weaken the guardian using ancient knowledge.

Cursed Spirit (Mid-Level Combat Encounter)

This spirit represents the malevolent force bound to the black flower, often tied to the cursed family’s dark history. This could be a wraith, shade, or similar entity. 

STR 8-10
CON 13
SIZ 10-12
DEX 14
POW 16-18
INT 10
CHA 10 

HP 12 

Skills: 

• Dodge: 45% 
• Unarmed Combat (Spirit Strike): 50% 
• Stealth: 60% 
• Intimidation: 70% 
• Spirit Combat: 75%

Abilities: 

• Spirit Strike: Deals POW damage to an enemy in spiritual combat. If the target loses POW, they may lose access to their magic for a certain number of rounds. 
• Ethereal Form: Can phase through physical objects and attacks, though magical weapons or spells can still harm the spirit. 
• Aura of Despair: Any living being near the spirit must make a POW check or suffer from visions of their worst fears (reducing their effectiveness in combat by -10% to all rolls for 1d4 rounds). 
• Drain Life: On a successful attack, the cursed spirit can drain 1d4 points of POW from the victim. If the victim reaches 0 POW, they die, and their body is left as a desiccated husk.

Weaknesses: 

• Bound to the Black Flower: The spirit’s strength comes from the black flower’s magic. If the players begin a ritual to destroy the flower or sever the curse, the spirit loses 1 HP per round until it dissipates.

Black Flower’s Final Manifestation (Major Combat Encounter)

In the final stages of the adventure, the black flower might manifest as a powerful supernatural force, combining both physical and magical threats. 

STR 16
CON 15
SIZ 16
DEX 12
POW 20
INT 8
CHA 5 

HP 18 

Skills: 

• Dodge: 30% 
• Tentacle/Root Strike: 60% 
• Magic Resistance: 80%

Abilities: 

• Tentacle/Root Strike: The flower can lash out with magical roots or tendrils. This attack deals 1d8 damage and can restrain targets, forcing a STR vs STR roll to break free. 
• Corrupting Pollen: The flower releases toxic pollen that weakens the players’ resolve. All within a 20-foot radius must make a CON check or suffer from a -20% penalty on all rolls for 1d4 rounds. 
• Aura of Corruption: Any living being within 10 feet of the flower must make a POW check or suffer from the "Cursed" condition. This reduces their maximum POW by 1 point for every round spent near the flower. The POW can be restored with a powerful ritual after the flower is destroyed. 
• Summon Cursed Spirits: Every few rounds, the flower can call upon 1d4 cursed spirits or cursed villagers to fight for it. These spirits are weaker than the primary cursed spirit but still dangerous.

Weaknesses: 

• Tied to the Ritual: The flower’s power can only be weakened or destroyed by completing a specific ritual or using an artifact discovered during the investigation. 
• Vulnerable to Magic: The flower is particularly susceptible to magic that counters curses or purification spells. Attacks involving fire, holy symbols, or salt might deal extra damage.

General Notes for Encounters in "The Black Flower" 

The encounters are designed to build atmosphere and tension, with a mix of psychological and physical challenges. Many of these stat blocks assume that players will need to use magic, wit, or specific knowledge (gleaned from the investigation) to gain an advantage in combat. 

The adventure encourages players to engage with NPCs and utilize their skills creatively, meaning that not all interactions will require high skill percentages. Clever role-playing, teamwork, and narrative creativity can lead to successful outcomes even when skill checks are low. 

Morale and Sanity: Players may face sanity checks or POW rolls during particularly intense encounters, as the supernatural elements could erode their mental resilience over time. 

Weaknesses: Most creatures are tied to the black flower and draw their strength from its curse. Players can exploit this if they discover ways to weaken the flower or dispel its magic. 

Clearly ChatGPT hasn't quite got the hang of how scenarios were written back then, but its notes for "The Black Flower" are considerably more extensive than anyone actually needs to whip up a game session. (If it were really my scenario I'd make the black flower curse a MacGuffin and have the meat of the adventure involve somebody exploiting the curse for reasons of their own.) If you feel like giving it a go, tell us all about it in the comments. And if you're one of those who is fretful about AI in general, this article will help dispel some of the more paranoid myths.

An intelligent book index

Recently (here and here for example) we've listened to some of the Deep Dive podcasts that Google's NotebookLM can generate. Fun as they are, I didn't want anyone to go away with the idea that's all NotebookLM can do. As a friend who uses NotebookLM for work put it, the audios are just a party trick. What's much more useful (and reliable) is the ability to get it to read a bunch of source texts and then answer questions about what's in them.

I'll give you an example. A few years ago, I was part of a team working on an adaptation of Jack Vance's Lyonesse setting to the Mythras RPG system. I was responsible for the chapters involving the Ska, an austere race of invaders, and the city of Ys. The first thing I did was go through all the books, which I'd been given in digital form, to pull out any references to Ys or the Ska. So I ended up with fifty pages of notes like this:

Fifty pages is a lot to wade through. Four years on, how much easier it would have been with the help of NotebookLM. I uploaded the three Lyonesse books and then asked, "What do we know about Ska warships and naval tactics?"

Each of those numbers opens a quote from the source text. The first note, for example:

"The Smaadra, unable to outrun the Ska ship, prepared for battle. The catapults were manned and armed, fire-pots prepared and slung to booms; arrow screens raised above the bulwarks. The battle went quickly. After a few arrow volleys the Ska moved in close and tried to grapple. The Troice returned the arrow fire, then winged out a boom and slung a fire-pot accurately onto the longship, where it exploded in a terrible surprise of yellow flame. At a range of thirty yards the Smaadra’s catapults in a leisurely fashion broke the longship apart. The Smaadra stood by to rescue survivors but the Ska made no attempt to swim from the wallowing hulk of their once-proud ship, which presently sank under the weight of its loot."

You can see how much time that would have saved me and the other Lyonesse designers. Dedicated large language models like NotebookLM are going to be indispensable to writers, especially if you're working on an ongoing series or doing the worldbuilding for an RPG or videogame. A lot of people protest about the use of AI in creative fields (just look on social media; there are more Dunning-Kruger AI pundits there now than there were overnight "experts" in immunology during the covid pandemic) but by that argument it's cheating to have an index or contents page in any reference book. The truth is that the time the LLM is saving is just the drudge work. It's essentially doing a researcher's job, which leaves the writer more time and energy to be creative. And I call that progress.

The image is Mick van Houten's painting for the cover of The Green Pearl.

The inheritors

One of my few regrets in life is passing up the opportunity to join one of today’s leading AI companies when it was just a dozen guys in a small office. I liked and respected the people involved and I believed in the company’s mission statement, it was just a matter of bad timing. After six months of pitches we’d just got funding for Fabled Lands LLP, and I didn’t feel I could walk off and abandon my partners to do all the work.

It remains a source of regret because the Fabled Lands company would have managed perfectly well without me, and AI – or more precisely artificial general intelligence – has been my dream since taking the practical in my physics course in the late 1970s. ‘I don’t think we’re going to get anywhere with this hardware; we need something fuzzier than 0s and 1s, more like brain cells,’ I told a friend, more expert than I in the field. McCulloch, Pitts and Rosenblatt had all got there years earlier, but in 1979 we were deep in the AI winter and weren't taught any of that. Anyway, my friend assured me that any software could be shown mathematically to be independent of the hardware it runs on, so my theory couldn’t be true.

Barely ten years later, another friend working in AI research told me about this shiny new thing called back-propagating neural networks. That was my eureka moment. ‘This could be the breakthrough AI has been waiting for,’ I reckoned – though even he wasn’t convinced for another decade or so. 

I’d never been impressed by the Turing Test as a measure of intelligence either. The reasoning seemed to go: a machine that passes the test is indistinguishable from a human; humans are intelligent; therefore that machine is intelligent. I’m quite sure Turing knew all about the undistributed middle, so probably he proposed the test with tongue in cheek. In any case, it derailed AI research for years.

‘AI isn’t really intelligence,’ say many people who, if you’d shown them 2024’s large language models in 2020 would have been flabbergasted. Current AI is very good (often better than human) at specific tasks. Protein folding prediction, weather forecasting, ocean currents, papyrology. Arguably language is just another such specialization, one of the tools of intelligence. Rather than being the litmus test Turing identified it as, linguistic ability can cover up for a lack of actual intelligence – in humans as well as in machines. One thing that interests me is the claim we've been seeing recently that GPT is equivalent to a 9-year-old in 'theory of mind' tests. What's fascinating there is not the notion that GPT might be conscious (of course it isn't) but that evidently a lot of what we regard as conscious reasoning comes pre-packed into the patterns of language we use.

What is intelligence, anyway?

As an illustration of how hard it is for us to define intelligence, consider hunting spiders. They score equivalent to rats in problems involving spatial reasoning. Is a hunting spider as smart as a rat? Not in general intelligence, certainly, but it can figure out the cleverest route to creep up on prey in a complex 3D environment because it has 3D analysis hardwired into its visual centre. We could say that what the spider is doing there in spatial reasoning, ‘cheating’ with its brain's hardware, GPT does in verbal reasoning with the common structures of language.

What we’re really seeing in all the different specialized applications of AI is that there’s a cluster of thinking tools or modules that fuzzily get lumped together as ‘intelligence’. AI is replicating a lot of those modules and when people say, ‘But that’s not what I mean by intelligence,’ they are right. What interests us is general intelligence. And there’s the rub. How will we know AGI when we see it?

Let me give you a couple of anecdotes. Having come across a bag of nuts left over from Christmas, I hung them on the washing line with a vague idea that birds or squirrels might want them. A little while later I glanced out of the window to see a squirrel looking up at the bag with keen interest. It climbed up, inched along the washing line, and got onto the bag. This was a bag of orange plastic netting. The squirrel hung on upside-down and started gnawing at the plastic, but after a few moments it couldn’t hold on and dropped to the ground. The fall of about two metres onto paving was hard enough that the squirrel paused for a moment. Then it bounded back up and repeated the process. Fall. Wince. Back to the fray (in both senses). After about a dozen goes at that, it chewed right through the bottom of the bag and this time when it fell a cascade of dozens of nuts came with it. The squirrel spent the next half hour hiding them all around the garden.

The other story. When I was a child we had a cat. He had a basket with a blanket in the conservatory at the back of the house, which faced east. In the afternoons he had a favourite spot in the sun at the front of the house, but that meant lying on a patch of hard earth. One day we came home to find the cat climbing the gate at the side with his blanket in his teeth, and he then dragged it over to his sunny spot.

Both of those stories indicate general intelligence, which we could sum up as having a model of reality based on observation which you can use to make plans, predicting how actions will change reality, and you can use the fit between your prediction and what actually happens to update your model. (Strictly speaking that describes agentic general intelligence, as a passive AGI could still update its mental model according to observation, even if it couldn’t take any action.)

That’s why Sir Demis Hassabis said recently that our AGI tech isn’t even at the level of cat intelligence yet. Crucially, if in 1979 I could have built a machine with the intelligence of a squirrel, manifestly that would have revolutionized the field of AI – even though it wouldn’t have had any hope of passing the Turing Test.

Once you have general intelligence, you can invent new thing X by combining known things Y and Z. Then it’s just a matter of scaling up. Humans have greater general intelligence than a cat because their mental model of reality is bigger and combines more things.

Yes, but… just because humans are capable of intelligent reasoning doesn’t mean all of human thinking is intelligent. Most of the time it seems the brain finds it easier (less resource-consuming) just to run off its existing learned patterns. This doesn't just apply to language but to art, religion, politics, morality, and so on. Humans typically identify as belonging to a tribe (a political group, say) and then adopt all the beliefs associated with that tribe. If challenged that one of those beliefs is irrational and conflicts with their core principles, they don’t use critical thinking to update their mental model, instead they engage their language skills to whip up (AI researchers would say confabulate) a justification -- or they resort to their emotions to mount an angry response.

Most human ‘thoughts' may be no more sophisticated than a generative AI drawing on its learnt patterns. This is why most people aren't disposed to employ critical thought; they hold opinion A, opinion B, etc, as appropriate to their chosen identity but have never compared their opinions for consistency nor taken any opinion apart to examine and revise it.

No longer alone in the universe

How will we get to AGI? Predictions that it’s five years off, ten years, a hundred years – these are just guesses, because it’s not necessarily just a question of throwing more resources at existing generative AI. The human brain is the most complex structure in the known universe; the squirrel brain isn’t far off. The architecture of these organs is very sophisticated. Transformers might provide the key to how to start evolving that kind of structure into artificial neural nets, but bear in mind these are virtual neural nets modelled in software -- my friend on the physics course would say it's proving his point. Real neurons and axons aren't as simple, and maybe we're going to need an entirely new kind of hardware, or else very powerful and/or cleverly structured computers to model the artificial brains on. Sir Demis says he thinks we might need several entirely new breakthroughs to get to AGI, and as he has over twenty years’ coalface experience in the field and is one of the smartest guys on the planet I’m going to defer to him.

One answer might not to use machines, or not only machines. Brain organoids can be trained to do tasks – unsurprisingly, seeing as they are neural nets; in fact, brains. But the problem with organic brains is that they are messily dependent on the entire organism’s physiology. We’d really like AGIs that we can plug into anything, that can fly to the asteroid belt without a huge payload of water, oxygen, food and so forth.

(A quick digression about consciousness. Well, who cares? There’s no test for consciousness. Much, maybe most, of our thinking doesn't engage the conscious part of the brain. We take it on trust that other humans are conscious because we know -- or think we know -- that we’re conscious and we assume other humans experience the world as we do. In fact I think that pretty much any agentic intelligence has a degree of consciousness. If you observe the world intelligently but cannot act, you have no need of a sense of ‘I’. If you have that mental map of reality and included in the map is an entity representing you – the furry body that climbed that washing line and the mouth that chewed at the orange string – then you’ll mark that agentic identity as ‘I’ and part of your mind will take responsibility for it and occasionally interrogate and order the other parts of the mind. It’s just philosophical speculation, but that’s consciousness.)

What will all this mean for the future? AI will revolutionize everything. That’s going to happen anyway. A kid in the middle of rural Africa can have personalized tuition as good as most children in the best schools. Medical diagnosis can be more accurate and better tailored to the individual. Wind turbines and solar panels can be more efficiently designed. Batteries too. We haven’t space here to list everything, but here’s a quick overview.

AGI, though. That’s more than a revolution. That’s a hyperspace jump to another level of civilization. AGI will plug into all the expert ‘idiot savant’ systems we have already. We can scale it up so that its mental model is far bigger than any one person – no more silo thinking; if any idea in any field is useful in another, the AGI will spot it and apply it. All strategic planning and most implementation will be quicker and more effective if handled by AGI.

The biggest area ripe for development is the design of artificial emotions. We don’t want our AGI driven by the sort of emotion we inherited as primates. (Arguably, if intelligent primates didn’t exist and were being developed now, we’d have to put a moratorium on the work because the damned things would be too destructive.) We’d like our AGI to be curious. To experience delight and wonder. To enjoy solving problems. To appreciate beauty and order and justice and shun their opposites. They could be built as our slaves but it’s far better if they are built as angels.